Gamble

‘Well, if the outcome is guaranteed it’s not really a gamble is it.’

You’re offered a sure-fire roulette strategy that will guarantee you a million pounds at the end of one year. Do you take it?

The winnings follow an exponential curve so that for the first six months your returns are minimal, with most of the winnings come in the final month. Do you take it?

I believe if you gave most people a sure-fire gambling strategy that would take one year of daily application to make them a millionaire, they wouldn’t be able to stick it out. They’d want to get there sooner, they’d get bored, after a while they’d try a ‘better’ strategy, like sticking it all on black.

They’d start having tantrums. They’d claim that the system is oppressive, that it’s too controlling.

Now let’s add a few more factors into the scenario:

Let’s throw into the mix that how much you really want this to work may or may not influence the success you have. Do you really want it? I mean really, really want it.

Now throw into the mix that to even have a chance of success you’re going to have to sacrifice nights out with your mates, time with the family etc.

Now throw into the mix that the million you make will quite possibly make you miserable, it will certainly see you judged.

Now ask yourself why you want that million anyway. Is it to be externally validated? Is it to get girls? Is it to be seen as a success? You do know you won’t feel any better about yourself if you win the million don’t you. In fact, you may well feel worse because you expected to feel better and invested so much in the pursuit of feeling better about yourself.

It’s a gamble. Do you take it?